கொரானா மனிதர்களுக்கு இறைவனால் விடப்பட்ட எச்சரிக்கை என்ற பதிவினைப் படித்திருப்பீர்கள். அது ஆன்மீகவாதிகளுக்கு. ஆன்மீகத்தைத் தாண்டி பசி என்ற ஒன்று இருக்கிறது. ஆன்மீகம் வாழ்க்கையின் மீதான நம்பிக்கைக்கு ஆதாரம்.
நம்பிக்கையே வாழ்க்கை என்பார்கள். ஆனால் எதார்த்தம் என்பது வேறு. இது பொருளால் உருவாக்கப்பட்ட உலகமாக, கொஞ்சம் கொஞ்சமாகப் பெருகிய மனிதக் கூட்டம் மாற்றியது தான் இத்தனைப் பிரச்சினைக்கும் காரணம். சரி இருக்கட்டும்.
இனி என்ன ஆகும் இந்திய பொருளாதாரம். ஆதாரம் இல்லையெனில் மனிதர்களாகிய நம் நிலமை. இனிமேல் பொருளாதாரம் என்னவாகும்? எதிர்காலத்தில் என்னென்ன நடக்கும்?
ஒவ்வொருவருக்கும் ஒவ்வொரு தெளிவு இருக்கலாம். அது அவரவர் அறிவுச் செறிவினைப் பொருத்தது.
சரி, இனி இந்தியாவின் பொருளாதாரம் எப்படி இருக்கும்? ஒவ்வொரு மனிதனுக்கும் அவசியமான வங்கிகள் இனி என்ன செய்யும்?
இதோ ஒரு அக்மார்க் விளக்கம். படித்துப் பாருங்கள்.
Some Points
Mentioned by Deepak Parekh (HDFC) in his Webinar
1) This is Human
Economic Financial (HEF) crisis. Completely
different from the one we had in 2008. Will take at least 9 months to
recover fully from it.
2) Banks to be on
tighter leash. Your Bank Sanction letter don’t matter now, only the amount in
your account does. Banks are going to revise your sanctions and make drastic
reductions,if they see a credit risk.
3) The billion
dollar startup valuations will be challenged, burning cash will be frowned
upon. It will be tough time for start-ups to raise cash.
4) It’s time to plan
for the Future, Look for opportunities and learn from these drawbacks.
Eg given of HDFC
where a team looks after the present planning. Another dedicated for future
disruption and plans.
5) Make time for
yourself. Learn new things. Spend time with the young and old. You will be
surprised to learn so much from them.
6) Leverage is
double edged sword. It can lift you or bring you down.
7) Restarting
Manufacturing is going be difficult . As the Labour force will be forced to
choose between Fear of Life or Livelihood.
To manage this the
Labour has to be incentivised to return, Management has guarantee them security
of life, food and stay if required. They should be your first priority.
Management has to
become more prudent by Cutting Costs, downsizing, No increments /bonus. Getting
cash flow back should be first priority.
8) Consumer credit
has to increase and Per capita income also. India is very low in it.
9) Public And Private partnership can work.
Example of YES Bank given
Even though Yes Bank
was a competitor we didn’t allow it fail and its repercussions would have been
more damaging.
It was not right of
PSU banks to take over the problems of a Private banks. Along with a few
private banks, We decided to come together with SBI and help Yes bank.
Yes bank had foreign
banks/Funds showing interest. But the Govt said it’s an Indian problem, let
Indian banks solve it.
We should have
stepped up did the the same for PMC Bank and IL&FS. Things would have
different then
10) RBI should come
forward and purchase Corporate debt papers. This is a common practice by the
central banks across the world.
11) NBFC should be
regulated more. If required new licenses should be stopped. Banks have an
exposure of 12 Lakh crore to these companies.
12) Force Majeure -
We having been hearing this term a lot these days. It was brought up in a Govt
gazette couple of weeks back regarding payment to it’s vendors. Now a lot of
companies including many Large companies are taking advantage of this and
trying to skip on their lease’s, payment
to vendors etc. This should be used only
when they are absolutely not in a situation to pay, not because you can. As
this can have a ripple effect on the economy.
13) Equity Markets
have been hit badly and will return.
Only 2% equity investors in India, compared
to 40-60% in some countries. MF penetration also very low at 12% compared to
62% global. If MF participation is doubled, will make huge difference in
markets. First time investors should be encouraged to invest in equity through
MF as it’s less risky.
Large companies within 24-48 Hrs get QIP from foreign funds. They should be
encouraged to raise more money from the public.
14) McKinsey report
states that between 2018-22 a billion people in the world will be of middle class category out of that
650 million will be in Asia and out of that 318 million will be from India.
India will become
huge in consumption numbers.
Financial savings
has decreased due to increased consumer spending.
Top 3 things on my
Mind
Financial sector
should be strong or else economy will
collapse - NBFC Should be regulated.
The Poor should be
supported more and steps to be taken for them too brought out of poverty. In
any crisis the they are the first affected and last to recover. They are the
backbone of the nation.
Simply the rules for
investment and remove complicated tax rules.
Expect govt to come
with stimulus scheme on Monday. We have given some recommendations.
Thanks to Mr.Deepak.
