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Showing posts with label இந்திய பொருளாதாரம். Show all posts
Showing posts with label இந்திய பொருளாதாரம். Show all posts

Sunday, April 12, 2020

இனி என்ன ஆகும் பொருளாதாரம்? மிகத்துல்லியமான விளக்கம்

கொரானா மனிதர்களுக்கு இறைவனால் விடப்பட்ட எச்சரிக்கை என்ற பதிவினைப் படித்திருப்பீர்கள். அது ஆன்மீகவாதிகளுக்கு. ஆன்மீகத்தைத் தாண்டி பசி என்ற ஒன்று இருக்கிறது. ஆன்மீகம் வாழ்க்கையின் மீதான நம்பிக்கைக்கு ஆதாரம். 

நம்பிக்கையே வாழ்க்கை என்பார்கள். ஆனால் எதார்த்தம் என்பது வேறு. இது பொருளால் உருவாக்கப்பட்ட உலகமாக, கொஞ்சம் கொஞ்சமாகப் பெருகிய மனிதக் கூட்டம் மாற்றியது தான் இத்தனைப் பிரச்சினைக்கும் காரணம். சரி இருக்கட்டும்.

இனி என்ன ஆகும் இந்திய பொருளாதாரம். ஆதாரம் இல்லையெனில் மனிதர்களாகிய நம் நிலமை. இனிமேல் பொருளாதாரம் என்னவாகும்? எதிர்காலத்தில் என்னென்ன நடக்கும்?

ஒவ்வொருவருக்கும் ஒவ்வொரு தெளிவு இருக்கலாம். அது அவரவர் அறிவுச் செறிவினைப் பொருத்தது. 

சரி, இனி இந்தியாவின் பொருளாதாரம் எப்படி இருக்கும்? ஒவ்வொரு மனிதனுக்கும் அவசியமான வங்கிகள் இனி என்ன செய்யும்?

இதோ ஒரு அக்மார்க் விளக்கம். படித்துப் பாருங்கள்.

Some Points Mentioned by Deepak Parekh (HDFC) in his Webinar

1) This is Human Economic Financial (HEF) crisis. Completely  different from the one we had in 2008. Will take at least 9 months to recover fully from it.

2) Banks to be on tighter leash. Your Bank Sanction letter don’t matter now, only the amount in your account does. Banks are going to revise your sanctions and make drastic reductions,if they see a credit risk.

3) The billion dollar startup valuations will be challenged, burning cash will be frowned upon. It will be tough time for start-ups to raise cash.

4) It’s time to plan for the Future, Look for opportunities and learn from these drawbacks.
Eg given of HDFC where a team looks after the present planning. Another dedicated for future disruption and plans.

5) Make time for yourself. Learn new things. Spend time with the young and old. You will be surprised to learn so much from them.

6) Leverage is double edged sword. It can lift you or bring you down.

7) Restarting Manufacturing is going be difficult . As the Labour force will be forced to choose between Fear of Life or Livelihood.

To manage this the Labour has to be incentivised to return, Management has guarantee them security of life, food and stay if required. They should be your first priority.

Management has to become more prudent by Cutting Costs, downsizing, No increments /bonus. Getting cash flow back should be first priority.

8) Consumer credit has to increase and Per capita income also. India is very low in it.

9)  Public And Private partnership can work. Example of YES Bank given

Even though Yes Bank was a competitor we didn’t allow it fail and its repercussions would have been more damaging.

It was not right of PSU banks to take over the problems of a Private banks. Along with a few private banks, We decided to come together with SBI and help Yes bank.

Yes bank had foreign banks/Funds showing interest. But the Govt said it’s an Indian problem, let Indian banks solve it.

We should have stepped up did the the same for PMC Bank and IL&FS. Things would have different then

10) RBI should come forward and purchase Corporate debt papers. This is a common practice by the central banks across the world.

11) NBFC should be regulated more. If required new licenses should be stopped. Banks have an exposure of 12 Lakh crore to these companies.

12) Force Majeure - We having been hearing this term a lot these days. It was brought up in a Govt gazette couple of weeks back regarding payment to it’s vendors. Now a lot of companies including many Large companies are taking advantage of this and trying to skip on  their lease’s, payment to vendors  etc. This should be used only when they are absolutely not in a situation to pay, not because you can. As this can have a ripple effect on the economy.

13) Equity Markets have been hit badly and will return.

Only 2% equity investors in India, compared to 40-60% in some countries. MF penetration also very low at 12% compared to 62% global. If MF participation is doubled, will make huge difference in markets. First time investors should be encouraged to invest in equity through MF as it’s less risky.

Large companies within 24-48 Hrs  get QIP from foreign funds. They should be encouraged to raise more money from the public.

14) McKinsey report states that between 2018-22 a billion people in the world  will be of middle class category out of that 650 million will be in Asia and out of that 318 million will be from India.

India will become huge in consumption numbers.

Financial savings has decreased due to increased consumer spending.

Top 3 things on my Mind

Financial sector should be strong or else economy will  collapse - NBFC Should be regulated.

The Poor should be supported more and steps to be taken for them too brought out of poverty. In any crisis the they are the first affected and last to recover. They are the backbone of the nation.

Simply the rules for investment and remove complicated tax rules.

Expect govt to come with stimulus scheme on Monday. We have given some recommendations.

Thanks to Mr.Deepak.